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# Thursday, August 31, 2006

Fortunately everything has propped early so I can tell you about the new toy to play with over the long weekend- Windows Media Player 11 Beta 2 w/ MTV's Urge music service, just in time for the MTV Video Music Awards ;).

The Windows Media Player 11 team has just shipped Beta 2 of Windows Media Player 11 via the Web.  I've requested a changelist or at least the top 10 fix list but regardless, this is a must-have update for anyone running Beta 1, if even just for the performance improvements. A few more notes on what's changed:

  • Fixing issues. Fixes have been made for issues that occurred in the first beta release of Windows Media Player 11 for Windows XP.
  • Additional online stores are now available. More online stores are available in this beta release of Windows Media Player 11 for Windows XP. For a listing of online stores that are now available, see Availability of online stores.
  • Changes to sharing digital media content. The functionality of Windows Media Connect is now integrated into Windows Media Player 11 Beta 2 for Windows XP as the new Media Sharing feature, which lets you enjoy the contents of your Windows Media Player library from anywhere in your home. If you have a home network (wired or wireless), you can use Windows Media Player 11 to stream the contents of your library to networked devices such as Xbox 360 or other digital media receivers. For more information, go to Digital Media at Home.
    Note that digital media sharing is targeted for home users; therefore, computers that are joined to a domain might experience issues when trying to share digital media.

Download Link (note: Genuine Windows Validation required for install)

posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 10:31:07 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [17] Trackback

Microsoft Corporate Vice President Amir Majidimehr recently took time to post in AVSForum on the new digital audio features in Windows Vista that haven't really seen much publicity yet.  Net-net is that when paired with the right audio drivers supporting the new features, you'll get customizable enhancements normally reserved for high-end AV receivers such as:

  • System-wide Loudness equalization
  • Bass Management (get the bass channel even on systems without a subwoofer)
  • Better support for surround sound systems up to 7.1 channels
  • Virtualized surround sound (Surround-->2 speakers)- mix 5.1 DVD's to headphones or standard desktop speakers
  • Virtual Surround (Stereo-->Surround)- turn 2-channel into surround sound for your receiver
  • Room Calibration - using a simple microphone, this profiler "listens" to the sound from each of your speakers to automatically adjust pitch and volume for where you're sitting in the room.  The better the mic, the better the results (My favorite for Media Center in the home theater!)

Now, not all audio drivers will support these features at Vista RC1- it's up to the sound card manufacturers to support it via in-box class drivers.  I know that HD Audio from Intel integrated into many new PC motherboards over the past 2 years does support it, but the currently available Beta 2 drivers from other card manufacturers haven't implemented yet.

Also worth mentioning is the work being done to really reduce latency and improve resiliency in the entire audio stack, both important to pro musicians and consumers alike.

You can also ask Amir questions about Vista Audio Processing here.

And a new whitepaper with more detail on Audio Innovations with screenshots is available here via the official Vista Blog.

posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 9:06:43 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

It's the un-teaser.  No flashy sites. No countdown clocks.  Just that I'll be posting more news here and a download link at noon. Plan to spend your lunch hour playing, or make that 3pm for those of you on the east coast. ;)

posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 7:13:04 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [3] Trackback
# Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Yes, there's a dedicated Mac team at Microsoft.  They build MacOffice, Virtual PC, IE, Messenger and a few other products for the Mac platform. And now they have a blog.  Welcome to the conversation Mac Mojo'ers. Looking forward to what you have to say.

posted on Wednesday, August 30, 2006 3:59:08 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [2] Trackback
# Tuesday, August 29, 2006

(Slower holiday week in the US - expect many more next week. ;) )

Courtesy

posted on Tuesday, August 29, 2006 3:02:17 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback
# Monday, August 28, 2006

This weekend I had the luxury responsibility of helping my wife buy a new car.  Her Honda  was at end of lease, and we were so happy with it after four years that we returned to the same dealership where I've been going loyally for 7 years.  After becoming infuriated by the games being played by an arrogant local Honda dealer at the onset of our negotiations,  I redoubled my efforts to get a great deal and came away realizing I've been leaving money on the table.  The good news is that after doing some deeper research, we walked away with a new Pilot on Saturday for about $9000 under sticker, and $3000 under invoice, plus a bunch of accessories effectively for free.  Here are a few tips we used to get to this level of dealing:

1.  Do Your Research- getting the details on manufacturer incentives and holdback are essential. The more educated you sound walking in the better.  First start on Edmunds.com and ConsumerReports.com. If you know the car you want, get the CR report for the car for about $14, no subscription required.  Print off Edmund's True Market Value (TMV) based on the zip code you're buying in AND another within a few hours' driving distance.  Get the invoice price, and be fully aware of what the Manufacturer Holdback and Marketing Incentive dollars are.  These are dollars reserved for the dealer to use to close deals, or in the case of unwary customers, can take as pure profit.  Look through community message boards and forums online and find what others are paying in your area, then print out the pages to bring with.

Also very important is to know the value of your trade according to at least two appraisals going in.  Whether you own or are trading in a leased vehicle, If it's in good condition, there's money there for the dealer- and you.  I've traded in two Honda's at end of lease and had a few thousand dollars of money there to play with.  Get the blue-book value and competitive used-car listings in your area.  Print them all out and use to your advantage.

2. Get competitive quotes and deal with the right person. Always ask for the fleet manager's name, then to speak to him/her.  The Fleet Manager is a senior manager or sales associate that works on high volume, straight transactions such as corporate fleet cars.  They're more likely to be ready to work with you vs. the younger hotshot trying to win points with the boss by taking you for a ride.  If a fleet manager isn't available, talk to the Internet sales department.

If you know the vehicle you're looking for, tell them using the exact terms of the model/package or packages you're interested in.  Ask what they have on the lot and say you're flexible on color. Do not get into details like colors and accessories, just the inventory. Start making notes on colors and packages currently available in a spreadsheet.  Those with more inventory, especially later in the model year, are more likely to give a great deal. 

3.  Know when to buy.  Timing your purchase during the year can be very advantageous.  A few tips that are mostly common sense: 1) Don't buy a convertible in the spring/summer.  2) Go in the afternoon at the end of the month (they want to close out volume and will give great deals). Cars such as SUV's aren't selling as well so getting them at the end of the year closeout may mean an opportunity to get ridiculously low deals (like we did).  This goes for vehicle that aren't flying off the showroom floors.  I once tried to negotiate on a Toyota Prius, but due to a 6-month waiting list, my position was eroded.

4.  Be willing to travel to get a better deal.  Be willing to travel a few hours to get outside a certain area to get a better deal.  Then, do the math.  Think about what your time and money is worth.  For a $5000 price drop, many folks even in Seattle area will travel to Texas or California to close a deal and have the car shipped home.  Some dealers will even buy you a plane ticket.  If you're buying an Asian import, Michigan is a great place if you're interested in doing this due to the large # of US automakers based in the Detroit area.  Don't be afraid to get a quote from out of state in email and bring it and the airline quote for a round trip ticket into your local negotiations.

5.  Eat before you go. Never negotiate on an empty stomach.  We took our son and friend to a special restaurant right before the dealership so hunger wouldn't be a factor. 

6.  Bring a friend... and your kids!  Let's be clear- this is business.  You need to treat it as such and leave the emotions at home. That's part of what your friend is there for.  My friend who is a car enthusiast and has many years experience buying company cars and personal drivers gave us the advantage because he's not emotionally invested.  If the dealer starts to work you over with numbers and phrases you don't know, trying to maintain control of the negotation, your friend can be the one to ask the "dumb" questions and push back.  He or she is also there as your gut check.  Sometimes spouses can do this, but a "friend" is more unnerving to the dealer.  Is this a buyer?  What's the person's background? Were they in the business?  Make sure it's clear though with the dealer that you're the one doing the negotiating, and your friend is there for you to talk to, not for the dealer to talk to.

Then there are the kids.  This works to your advantage as well believe it or not if you do it right. Some car salesman love couples with kids.  They're too distracted to negotiate well and as the hours progress, the child often goes into meltdown.  My wife and I got into this situation once and I walked away.  We realized there's no advantage to having the two of us there with a child trying to negotiate.  My wife can swoop in during the final closing while my friend thankfully watched our son for a while. 

7.  Game Time: Set two appointments at different dealerships - and a time limit.  I had an appointment scheduled at another dealer further away with a firm offer in email.  By casually "swinging" by the closer dealership on my way to see if they could beat it on my way, it was clear from the beginning that I was shopping around.  This was key to maintaining control.  Coupled with #1 - casually mentioning what inventory was sitting on other dealers' lots, I made it clear I knew the local market prior and wouldn't be easily taken.  I knew what their "spiff" or holdback looked like and was using their jargon.  I was respectful but clear and deliberate in what I wanted.

In our case, my friend and I agreed to 45 minutes from sit-down at the negotiating desk to base deal.  We noted with the dealer we had another appointment in the afternoon and both knew exactly what time that was, saying it in tandem when asked.

8.   Don't sign anything or give up your edge until you have a firm base-price offer.  Some dealerships employ tactics such as taking your driver's license, a credit card, or a signature as "a show of good faith" at the beginning of the negotiation.  While many states now require that you give a driver's license for a photocopy to be made before taking a test drive, once they have the photocopy, you keep everything you walked in with.   The reason they ask for this is to take away your control.  If they won't take the deal back to their manager without these items, walk out.  I once had a dealer start to yell back at me when I turned the question around on him as to why he needed a signature before going back to his manager the first time.  Sitting in the seat at the dealership is proof enough of your intent.  So negotiate well, be professional and amiable but don't talk about personal details. Once you have your agreed-upon base price, normally your friend will step away as you're about 2/3 of the way through the deal. 

9.  Remember: Always be ready to walk out.  In our negotiation, the owner of the dealership personally came out and very frankly said he can't beat the offer and doesn't believe we'll get it at the other dealership.  So, we got up and started walking out after thanking him and his team for their time.  The salesman worked extra hard to try and save the deal.  They offered to pay for half of the only accessory I wanted (running boards) and I agreed.  It's improtant you're ready to walk out at any point.  Take multiple copies of your car keys with you too.  Just in case they're going to appraise your trade-in and need your keys, it's your right to keep tabs on where your car is, get up and walk out at any point if you're not happy with the way things are going.  You can always pick up the keys later.  If you walk out, there's still a high likelihood that you'll get a call back if you weren't too much of a pain in the ass to deal with.

10.  Have financing options and be wary of the Finance "Closer".  I don't recommend discussing financing options before you have the base price offer closed.  Discussing financing can devolve into an offer based on payment price vs. actual base price and this is how some people get taken (myself included, before I knew better).  Once you have the offer page, write down the exact amount.  Now you're ready to discuss financing.  My thoughts here will be based on purchase financing, not leasing.  There are other sites and details you can get for the Lease vs. Buy question and differences too numerous to discuss here.  The important things are: 1) Know your credit score.  Go to www.freecreditreport.com www.annualcreditreport.com and get your report. By law, you're allowed one per year.  2) Secure an auto loan separate from the dealership.  Capital One or your local bank.  Shop around for the best deal.

The financing guy is often a senior salesperson who has "graduated" to finance.  He or she's been in the game long enough and is smooth enough to try and extract a few more dollars out of you.  Your guard is normally down because you've haggled your price down and you just want to be done.  My recommendation - unless you've done the research, don't buy any of the "extras" they offer you in finance.  They'll use a "payment based" calculator again to keep your eye off the actual cost.  Most of the items - paint protection, leather protectant, Lo-Jack etc. can ALL be bought for cheaper aftermarket without any difference in quality or negative effect on your warranty.  (This was a point brought up on a nightly news magazine show in the US just recently.) Speaking of warranties, there's the Extended Warranty offer. Spend some time looking over the reports in message boards before signing up for this.  In almost all cases, it's cheaper to get an extended warranty near the end of the included warranty. 

Final Thoughts
I want to make a note here that the dealers in most cases are genuine and honest people who should be treated with respect- just as you should. They just know their business and generally what levers to pull to get you to buy their product, just the same as someone in any sales or marketing position.  This is a business transaction for both parties and as long as both is treated fairly, I believe the above will work in most cases.  I've never worked as a car salesman but I've done probably 120+ hours of research over the years to understand what works and how to do it quickly.  I hope you find this useful.

posted on Monday, August 28, 2006 11:14:47 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [7] Trackback

Major Nelson just posted that the TV show "Battlestar Galactica: The Story so Far" is now available for download in it's entirety on Xbox Live for free. I expect this is a catch-up episode, comparable to what was offered on ITunes last year, but what's interesting is how we're starting to see TV feature-length content start to show up on Xbox Live's network.  Hmmm...

And by the way, Battlestar is one of my favorite shows despite my dismissal of the concept when I first heard about it and the cheesy original show.  I was wrong.  Downloading.

posted on Monday, August 28, 2006 9:31:12 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [4] Trackback
# Sunday, August 27, 2006

I just have to say congrats and thanks to the Windows Vista engineering team.  The new RC1 escrow builds are looking so much better and better.  Pundits and enthusiasts alike (sometimes the same) are starting to see what so many long hours is delivering.  Media Center in Vista Premium and Ultimate is really starting to shine.  On to RC1 and RTM...

tags: , , , , , , ,

posted on Sunday, August 27, 2006 6:49:25 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [1] Trackback
# Friday, August 25, 2006

Apparently there  has been some confusion in the 'sphere the past few days on whether 32-bit based PCs running Windows Vista will support HD formats including HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.  HD-DVD and Blu-Ray support will be made available in Vista via ISV applications and according to a statement by Adam Anderson, nothing in any version of Windows Vista would make that determination. Here's the official Microsoft statement on the topic:

It is up to the ISVs providing playback solutions to determine whether the intended playback environment, including environments with a 32-bit CPU, meets the performance requirements to allow high-definition playback while supporting the guidelines set forth by the content owners.

No version of Windows Vista will make a determination as to whether any given piece of content should play back or not.

I'm  working to get additional detail on the topic and will post more here when I can.

posted on Friday, August 25, 2006 4:50:33 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [1] Trackback

Ok, I admit it, I'm a NetFlix laggard. More times than I care to remember,  I forget to update my NetFlix queue and discover new movie releases at the checkout stand at the grocery store.  Then by the time I get home I'm distracted again.   That's why I'm excited about NetFlix Mobile.  With the service you can  see the next ten movies in your queue, browse for new movies, add to your queue, and even view a short synopsis.  It's a great start, but there are a few features I'd like to see:

  • UPC snap.  Forget thumbing titles in for search - snap a picture with your cameraphone of the barcode on a movie to do.
  • Movie Ratings. Both professional and from friends in my circle.
  • Video Previews. Less necessary but interesting.
  • Upcoming releases. Browse a list of upcoming releases  by genre, box office, and/or format (e.g. HD-DVD)
  • Queue reordering. Right now you can view and move to top, but you can't reorder.

Either way, this is an idea that's time is overdue.  Bookmarked!

posted on Friday, August 25, 2006 4:13:30 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback
# Thursday, August 24, 2006

Rob Miles has written an interesting Flickr Photo plug-in for Windows Live Writer.  It's still pretty early, but he's released the download and will release source soon.  This is fantastic news IMO.

Update: Tim Heuer mentioned there is another plug-in is also available for Flickr  at www.flickr4writer.com.  Very nice.

Now will someone write a "What I'm Listening To" and a "Current Mood: " plug-in to append these to the bottom of my posts?  I always liked that about LiveJournal.

posted on Thursday, August 24, 2006 12:42:49 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [4] Trackback

Ahh, the spat between two prior partners.  It was getting hard there to keep track of all the lawsuits flying between Creative and Apple.  Now they've settled out of court.  Is this an admission by Apple that they copied stole liberated Creative's IP?  It's unclear.  But Creative's Soon-Kon Kim is now $100M richer and planning to make iPod accessories.

Steve says:

"Creative is very fortunate to have been granted this early patent," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "This settlement resolves all of our differences with Creative, including the five lawsuits currently pending between the companies, and removes the uncertainty and distraction of prolonged litigation."

"Very fortunate"?  An odd way of acknowledging Creative owns the intellectual property.  Is sense much gnashing of teeth and PR jockeying over this exact quote.   I wonder if some designer/engineer just got fired for stiffing the company with the $100M tab for failing to rush out and patent everything they were working on with Creative. 

posted on Thursday, August 24, 2006 2:57:23 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [1] Trackback
# Wednesday, August 23, 2006

You just have to  love Weird Al.  Whatever you do, !  Classic.

posted on Wednesday, August 23, 2006 7:34:19 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

Engadget is reporting pictures have been snapped of a TiVo Series 3 being tested in the wild.  Few new details are  available other than the confirmed dual-cable card slots on the back confirming two HD-quality signals can be recorded on the unit. 

Other than the gadget-coolness of  this announce, why does this matter?  Today TiVo units (other than DirecTivos) have to recompress an analog cable signal.  With the Series 3, you'll save the actual digital stream, bit for bit, from your cable operator (think Comcast) and unchained from the watered-down set-top-boxes for the masses we've all had to deal with for the better part  of a quarter century.  I was a first-adopter of TiVo, and love my TiVo Series 2 unit despite a few quirks.

Understanding CableCARD and On-Demand Services
Cablecards are similar to conditional access cards in Satellite TV boxes; heavy DRM is used to manage the authorization of your box on their network, and to decrypt the video stream.The main drawback that consumers often don't know is that even with CableCard, you will not be able to enjoy on-demand services.   Today CableCard support is unidirectional*, meaning you can decode and watch what is sent down the pipe, but the standard doesn't facilitate for communicating back up, key for on-demand offerings and interactivity.  So as a consumer you may be asked to make a tradeoff in service offering - do you want the high-quality, high-performance TiVo Series 3 experience and no on-demand, or a slow performing DVR from your cable company.   This is a reason why the cable operators will spend hundreds of dollars per household in on-demand coupons such as "Free Movie every Month" books given to new digital-tier customers.  Once you're conditioned to see on-demand as an indispensible part of the TV viewing experience, you're set.  But wait- it could get more confusing, because there may be an in-between offering as well!

TiVo + Cable Company = TiVo Premium?
Cable operators make big capital investments in set-top box equipment and extract an annuity stream from it.  So the question becomes, is there space for a solution that combines the best of Cable & TiVo?  I believe so.  This is why TiVo's  strategy of licensing deal to cable operators is potentially a Good Thing(tm).  A new "TiVo Premium" tiered box from the Cable company that offers TiVo + CableCard + On-demand that costs ~$10-15 more per month is what we're likely to see in the future from some operators and according to some reports, may already be in testing.

Even with this "Premium" box offering though, we could be concerned about in-home interoperability.  Today, two TiVo units can communicate and stream media from one room to another (similar to recording TV on a Media Center PC and stream to an Xbox 360 which you can do today). But will i be able to "rent" a TiVo-enabled Cable Box from Comcast for the TV in the family room, and watch recorded content on a purchased TiVo Series 3 streamed to the bedroom? Somehow I doubt it. 

So why is this all so hard? Is it really in the Cable operator's interest to open their networks?  The federal government mandated almost a decade ago that the cable operators create an interoperability standard so that other hardware can play back televised content.  The federal deadline for supporting  CableCard has been pushed back multiple times due in part to foot dragging.    Now there are rumblings from the Cable operators that they'll have to upgrade their network infrastructure to compete with Fiber-based services coming from the telcos, possibly making CableCard obsolete... again. 

*OCUR or OpenCable Unidirectional Receiver or OCUR is another acronym used to describe the current standard.

posted on Wednesday, August 23, 2006 6:50:12 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

Engadget and a number of sites are reporting this AM that the www.notfornoobs.com teaser was for the new 2000dpi, high-precision Microsoft Habu Mouse powered by Razer. Interchangeable side button panels, high speed motion detection, and the ability to adjust DPI on the fly round out the features of this wired wonder.  SRP is $69.96 when available in October.

The Habu is a dangerously venomous pit viper of the genus Trimeresurus (T. flavoviridis) common in the Ryukyu islands.  So yes, we have Snakes on a Mouse... or did the snake eat the mouse?

posted on Wednesday, August 23, 2006 5:21:26 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

 • The Bone Collector (Universal)
Caddyshack (Warner)
Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner)
The Searchers (Warner)
Spy Game (Universal)

Courtesy

posted on Wednesday, August 23, 2006 5:13:36 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

Michael Gartenberg has an interesting recount of the negotiations between  Microsoft and The Rolling Stones by Brad Silverberg and  Brad Chase for the  commercial rights to "Start Me Up".  Part 1 of 2 details the negotiations, and the new version of the song that almost was.

This got me thinking about what should be the launch theme of Windows Vista?  (Disclaimer - I have no knowledge of any plans).  Windows XP's commercial anthem was Madonna's "Ray of Light".  Everyone thought it would be Jimmi  Hendrix' "Are you eXPerienced?".  No doubt any music selected will be contemporary, but I think the anthem should be Van Halen's, "".  Considering  the following:

  • The original album hit #1 and was on the charts for 74 weeks, this is no small feat. 
  • The median age of a target Windows PC user is in the same demographic that  will remember the song fondly
  • The experience of Longhorn/Vista, the song's lyrics speak  to me  about both the challenges and incredible effort of the engineering team to deliver what's shaping up to be a great release
  • The song is forward-looking, capturing the essence of opportunity
  • Rock music is making a comeback  ;)

Another nice choice would be U2's "", but given U2's relationship with Apple, I doubt that would happen.

What song would you pick? Feel free to comment here.

posted on Wednesday, August 23, 2006 4:55:37 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [6] Trackback
# Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Sane advice here from Rod Boothby of InnovationCreators.com for anyone who a) works and b) blogs.

posted on Tuesday, August 22, 2006 2:44:29 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

SciFi Channel just announced however just after last week's 200th episode, that they would not be re-upping the show for another season though spinoff Stargate Atlantis will continue. I've always liked Stargate SG-1.  It was one of those intelligent, yet sarcastic, not take itself too seriously shows that my wife and I have been watching since college.  Yes, it's been that long- the longest-running American SciFi TV program in history. 

posted on Tuesday, August 22, 2006 2:37:52 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [0] Trackback

It's not often I make predictions here, but yesterday I had an "aha" moment spurred by sites abuzz with Reuters report that SanDisk is launching the Sansa e280, an 8GB version of  their e2xxx series for $249.99.  This little device will hold about 2,000 songs, double the capacity of the similarly priced iPod Nano.  Meanwhile prices on their 2GB, 4GB, and 8GB models are being dropped an average of 30%. This may sound like just another product announcement, but I believe this is much more.  This is the equivalent of a shot across the bow of every MP3 player in the market and a new price war is underway. 

One of the reasons SanDisk can compete so well here is that they own and run their own NAND Flash memory fabrication plants in partnership with Toshiba. NAND or "Flash" memory has been popularized by everything from MP3 players to memory cards for cell phones and cameras; development of these memory products is one of SanDisk's core competencies.  Using economies of scale to their advantage, they're able to acquire large quantities at base price, and pass some savings on to customers, a competitive advantage few have. 

But the bigger question is will Apple emerge with a new flash based player ala Nano to compete or wait?  Part of the answer I believe lies in another quiet announcement made recently which hints at Apple's upcoming roadmap.

Where is the new iPod Nano? Read the NAND leaves.
Apple, being one of the largest purchasers (and by proxy best negotiators) of flash memory destined for MP3 devices, recognized this choke point in 2005. But rather than lay out the capital cost of building their own chipfab, the entered into a $500M agreement with Intel and Micron last November helping to form IM Flash Technologies. By paying out $250M each to Intel and Micron, they've secured first-mover access at unparalleled pricing for NAND+ products.  I call them NAND+ because IM Flash is already sampling the industry's first 50nm scale technology for manufacturing flash, a process 10x smaller than that of facilities just coming online now.

This got me to thinking about why we still haven't seen a new iPod released by Apple.  Are they relinquishing their perceptual first-mover's advantage? Not necessarily. My prediction is that they're waiting until their investment in cheaper, smaller, NAND technology is ready.  Smaller nm NAND flash offers higher capacities in a smaller space.  Today Apple sources Flash memory from other companies such as Samsung.  But production goes online in IM Flash's VA facility later this year albeit with limited production capacity until their Utah-based facility comes online in mid-2007. 

So what is Apple going to do? I'm going to make my own prediction: Apple will first start to integrate their new memory investments into an upcoming iPhone, which will have a smaller unit-volume requirement than a next-gen iPod Nano.  They'll release a phone with 16-32GB of flash memory to cater to the high-end market. In Q1/Q2, once IM Flash is ramping up, the new Nano/Nano replacement will come out, and a price battle will kick into overdrive. The smaller sized chips + lower price to Apple gives them an edge on size of device, capacity, and without a major price differential. 

SanDisk isn't going to slouch here though. They've started production on Fab3, their 3rd 500nm NAND production facility with Toshiba.  At 500nm though, these chips will be larger than the 50nm units that IM Flash is ramping up.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how the next round plays out.

posted on Tuesday, August 22, 2006 2:20:32 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Comments [1] Trackback